Anyone that knows me is aware that I’m a huge Apple fan. The first computer
my dad put me on was an Apple II back in the day. I lost touch with the
company until my freshman year of college when I worked on a Mac network.
It was around the time that Apple released the first iMacs and brightly colored
iBooks. Steve Jobs has been great at turning Apple around and making it a
player once more. Enough has been written about that over the past 10
years. Under his leadership, not only has Apple been great at reinventing
itself, but it has learned from their mistakes…unlike Sony. For
instance, the iPod. They made it available to Mac and Windows users
whereas the Apple of old would have made it Mac only. Recently, they have
made iTunes Plus which will let users share music without restriction.
I’ve been waiting for awhile to write about the iPhone, so I figured I’d
wait till the hype was at its peak and then scribble. Well, tomorrow is
the day. And as I sit here in the
Atlanta
airport waiting to hit NYC, I’m seeing about every 3rd person with an iPod and
every 2nd person with a cell phone/Bluetooth ear piece attached to their
heads. Apple has finally put a true convergence of these two
together…the Motorola ROKR didn’t count. The screen is the latest
technology to hit the consumer markets and it’s reported to be remarkably easy
to use (check out WSJ’s Walter Mossberg for the latest preview). The idea
of the ‘true’ Internet and not a dumbed-down version of it and is supposed to
be fantastic. You’ve seen the commercials, so you know what you’re
looking forward to seeing. My two favorite things to follow are business
and sports. Within the professional realm of both, I’ve learned to detach
emotion from both (unfortunate reality of pro sports). I have an
old G4 Powerbook, an iMac, 2-iPods and am a shareholder (bought it at $35…YEAH!).
Needless to say, I’m emotionally involved with Apple, but my parents always
taught me tough love.
I’m a strong believer in waiting past the first generation (1G) of anything
before purchasing. I waited until the 3G iPod before I bought one, 2G
iMac, the 3G of my current car, etc. The Blackberry Pearl was the most
recent major 1G purchase I’ve made in a long time. There are several
reasons I always follow this rule such as money, bugs, etc. However, as I
type there are lines wrapped around at&t and Apple stores nationwide with
people in the cult. Thank God for these people. I will never be the
one standing outside for tickets, toys, standing outside the movies for the
next Harry Potter or whatever; but those the people that help create the market
and drive new technology. Apple is limiting to 2 per customer. I’m
excited that I will happen to be in NYC tomorrow to see all of this
unfold. My friend Darren Herman said that people have lined up 4-days in
advance in
!
Having said that, here are my predictions for the iPhone:
SHORT TERM…From a functionality
perspective, I think most people’s expectations will probably be exceeded and
surprised. People see the ease of a new product on TV and usually think
about the burgers at their favorite restaurant that never quite looks like the
picture.
The gadget geeks will be more than satisfied
with their product, but I don’t think Apple will hit the corporate customers as
hard they are expecting and that includes the usual trendy small business
owners. Unfortunately, Microsoft Outlook still rules the day as a
personal organizer and there is no option to sync with this program like there
are with Blackberry and Treo. Any webmails such as Gmail and Yahoo won’t
be a problem, but most companies of any size don’t use this.
A major surprise I’ve had is Apple’s
partnerships with at&t, and the reason is I’ve not been impressed with much
at&t has done from a customer service or innovation perspective; whereas,
for the most part, I’ve had the exact opposite experience with Apple.
Their Genius Bars in their stores are just that…genius. Their open
discussion forums online and phone tech support is just wonderful. They
have become a leading poster child for the ‘customer experience.’
Everything at&t and Cingular in this realm was (and still is) absolutely
terrible. Regardless of Apple’s intentions, will customers be able to
differentiate the two when they start having problems? My 18-year old
sister can go into an at&t store right now and ask a question about a phone
and most likely get someone her age that doesn’t know and/or doesn’t
care….she can go into an Apple store and get someone of any age to help with
any product with passion.
$500? They did this with the 1G iPod which
kept me from it. $60…the data plan and only 450 minutes…if it ran on the
3G network maybe Skype would be a great option here. Sony is having
a rough time with their PS3 and in close danger of losing many loyal
users. There are many factors but one of them is the high price
tag. Sony has had the same problem with their PSP and have come down to
the level of the Nintendo DS. Will Apple duplicate? Likely not, the
market will drive their price down just like the hundreds of MP3 players did
for the iPod.
WiFi support is lacking as a
whole and the phone will run on an older EDGE technology. It’s hard for
me to imagine taking full advantage of the iPhone capabilities on the EDGE
network…I know because my
runs on it. I’m almost wondering if it’s a better idea to pay $29.99 a
month for T-Mobile’s Hotspot program rather than at&t’s $60 data
plan. To me, there are more Starbucks/Borders/Barnes and Nobles etc. with
Hotspots (see article on T-Mobile’s Tripe Threat) than there are random WiFi
networks.
LONG TERM…I’m curious to see what this does for the cannibalization
of Apple’s iPod. I’m sure they have it in the plan, since they have 80%
market share; but I’m anxious to see it unfold.
Since the addition of iTunes plus now allows users the share
music freely and other companies such as RIM begin to push the envelope of
smart phones, will Apple lose their dominant position on the music
industry. There are already touch screens out there much more advanced
than the one being released tomorrow.
Does Apple have a plan to become the Google of the hardware world?
Basically buying companies and putting them on a shelf to keep them from
competing.
I haven’t heard many speak about it, but this will be the first form of iPod
with Bluetooth. So, yes people will be sharing music, but think about the
opening for advertisers and user-generated media. I’m excited about this
because we could begin to see some pretty funky stuff.
BOTTOM LINE: I’m excited about the release and anxious to hear
about the new experiences. I have faith in Apple but not at&t, so I
think whatever goes wrong will be taken care of; and I’m pretty sure I’ll
become a 2G/3G user.
