The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts will play for NFL supremacy in Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday, February 7th, 2010. All the “experts” are picking the Colts purely based on Peyton Manning’s mastery of the game. Mastery may be an understatement as he is so good that his name may one day become a verb in football vernacular. No one searches the Internet anymore because they “Google” it. The golf world had to “Tiger Proof” courses to level the field. Future NFL quarterbacks will one day learn how to “Peytonize” their play.
But, Manning hasn’t been canonized yet; and I have yet to see any real hard stats on why the Colts are going to beat the Saints. I continually hear that they tore apart the #1 ranked defense in the NY Jets. Well, hell, just give the Colts the trophy now. Read the top 10 below to see how irrelevant that stat is.
Since I have seen very few numbers provided as to why the Saints will lose, I’m going to provide you with 10 hard statistics that prove why the Saints have a fighting chance to win Super Bowl XLIV.
First…Numbers That Cancel Out
#9 & #18: As expected, most of the talk about Super Bowl XLIV has been built-up around the quarterbacks playing on Sunday. Trying to compare these two is like splitting hairs. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning lead the NFL in touchdowns with 122 each since 2006. For the 2009 season, both had stellar passing percentages with Brees slightly ahead at 70.6 (NFL Record) and Manning at 68.8. Brees threw 34 touchdowns to Manning’s 33. Manning threw 16 interceptions to Bress’ 11. Brees was the highest rated passer at 109.6. Manning was 6th at 99.9. The bottom line is that you will see the top two quarterbacks in the game today play on Sunday. Regardless of allegiance, what a treat!!
5: Football games are won in the trenches. The Colts and Saints are very evenly matched on their offensive lines. Both are ranked in the top 5 in sacks allowed (Colts 13 / Saints 20) & hits on the QB (Colts 44 / Saints 52). Neither offensive line is legendary, but they have stellar leaders that possess great internal clocks and know how to move in/out of pocket.
34: Receiving TDs – Both the Saints & Colts are tied for 1st w/ 34 (Vikings also had 34).
#1: The most overrated stat I’ve heard is the Colts beat the NFL’s best defense already, which in 2009 was the Jets. The pedestrian logic is that since Peyton tore up the #1 ranked Jets’ defense in the AFC Championship, then the Saints are doomed as they are ranked #25. The only one stat used to declare the best defense in the NFL is yards per game allowed. Of the top 10 teams in this category, 4 did not make the playoffs and the other 6 have been knocked out already. The Colts rank 18th giving up 15 yards less per game than the Saints.
Now…10 Stats That Back the Saints to Win SB XLIV
0: The number of kick-off Returns of 40+ yards the Colts have made, which ranks them at 28th. The Saints are ranked 4th with 5 on the season. Both teams are about even on kickoff touchback percentage, so it could be a big kick-off return that gives either Brees or Manning the edge they need.
3: The Saints defense has beaten 3 more Super Bowl tested quarterbacks than the Colts have. The 5 quarterbacks the Saints played are E. Manning, Delhomme, Brady, Warner & Farve. The Colts have only beaten 2 (Warner, Brady). Combined, those 5 quarterbacks have 11 Super Bowl starting appearances and 6 championship rings. In contrast, the Colts opponents have 7 appearances with 4 rings.
4.5: The Saints running backs are just better than the Colts as they are ranked 5th in team rushing with 4.5 yards/carry. The Colts are ranked 31st with 1 full yard less per carry (3.5). The Saints are a much more balanced team as they accomplished that stellar mark on 812 more rushing attempts than the Colts. Ironically, the Jets, whom the Colts beat, also had 4.5 yards/carry.
…so why will the Saints fare better?…The Jets were a 1-trick pony (no pun intended)…
8.3: The Saints are ranked 3rd for number of passing yards per attempt at 8.3. The Jets were ranked 31st with 6.6. The Colts place 10th at 7.7.
11: The Saints are ranked 3rd in turnover margin at +11. The Colts are 14th at +2.
21: The number of rushing TDs by the Saints, which ranks them 3rd in the NFL. The Colts are 13th with 16 rushing TDs. This difference of 5 will prove to be relevant since the both teams are near even in the passing game.
31.9: The Saints are ranked 1st with 31.9 points per game (PPG). The Colts are ranked 7th with 26. (Vikings 2nd 29.4 / Jets 17th 21.8)
32: The Colts rushing attack is ranked dead last with 1,294 yards. As a team, the Saints are ranked 6th in rushing with 2,106 yards.
39: The Saints are ranked 2nd in total takeaways with 39. The Colts are ranked 18th with 26. The Saints defense is so hawkish that it caused the Minnesota Vikings to turn the ball over 5 times. If the Saints had recovered every turnover, then they would have had 9 on the day. Until the NFC Championship, the Vikings had turned the ball over no more than 2 times all season.
889: Total defensive penalty yards racked up by the Colts, which is good for 24th place. The Saints finished 9th with 717. It will be interesting to see if the refs pay special attention to the “late” hits on Peyton seeing how the Saints have already roughed up Warner and Farve to this point.
A Few Extra Points…
8: The Saints are ranked 1st in defensive touchdowns with 8. The Colts are tied with several teams in 16th place with 2.
Rushing: Only 2 Saints (Bell, Thomas) have rushed for more than 100 yards this season. No Colt has rushed for more than 80 yards this season.
SB Teams That Were Given No Shot: 2008: New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14…2003 Bucs 48, Raiders 21… 2002: Patriots 20, Rams 17. … 1998: Denver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24. … 1970: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Vikings 7. … 1969: New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7.
Intangible: I believe the Saints are collectively playing with higher sense of purpose than their counterparts. The Super Bowl trophy is named after Vince Lombardi and he once said, “Success demands singleness of purpose.”
Prediction: Saints 38 Colts 34
Gene Wojciechowski’s Take On the Colts Winning
